Monday 10 February 2025
Upcoming water availability update
Southern Basin
The aim of this service is to reduce some of the uncertainty about upcoming irrigation water availability, to assist with early and informed farm decision making, and to provide online links to help you actively keep up to date.
In this update:
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- Summary
- Current Southern Basin water availability
– Combined Southern Basin water storage
– Individual storages - Southern Basin water allocations
- LRWS unlikely in Vic Murray and Goulburn 2024-25
- Recent rain
- Recent storage volume changes
- Unused available water
- Water use versus water remaining
- 2024-25 carryover volumes
- 2025-26 water reserves
- 2025-26 storage change scenarios
- 2025-26 water outlook release dates
- Recent system inflows
- Catchment soil moisture
- Storage inflow outlooks
- Climate outlook
- Climate drivers
- Useful web sites
1. SUMMARY
- In the last water allocation update (3 February), allocations in the NSW Murray increased 4%, to 62% General Security (GS) entitlement. There were no changes to allocations in other key Southern Basin systems.
- The shortfall to LRWS in the Victorian Murray system this season is 900GL, while in the Goulburn the shortfall is 790GL.
- LRWS is unlikely to be allocated in the Victorian Murray and Goulburn this season.
- Draw-down of the storages continues as the irrigation season progresses with unusually high demand for water and very low inflows.
- Soil moisture in key upper catchments is near-median to drier for this time of year.
- The 2025-26 northern Victorian seasonal determination outlook is due to be released next Monday, 17 February. Typically, the NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee water outlooks for next season are released on 15 March.
- Volumes of water used versus water remaining in the Victorian Murray and Goulburn systems indicate that if 2024-25 water usage and inflows trends continue, carryover volumes into 2025-26 will be lower than carryover into this season.
- Based on historic changes in key storage volumes over the course of 12 months for previous years when the storages began with similar volumes to February 2025, there is a range of possible capacity scenarios over coming months for each storage.
- The climate outlook issued last week for March to May is for about a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall and above a 70% chance of exceeding median temperatures.
- At this time of year, past accuracy of the temperature outlook is significantly better than the rainfall outlook.
2. CURRENT SOUTHERN BASIN WATER AVAILABILITY
Combined Southern Basin water storage
The combined Southern Basin water storage is at 65% capacity, or 11,383GL, compared to 88% capacity at the same time last year. Over the last ten years Southern Basin storage has averaged 65% at this time of the year.
The Bureau graph below shows the combined volume in Southern Basin storages as a percentage of capacity. These storages include Lakes Dartmouth, Hume, Eildon, Burrinjuck, Blowering, Menindee(s), Victoria, and other smaller storages.
Southern Basin combined storage (% capacity)
Source: Bureau MDB Water Information Portal.
Individual storages
Source: Bureau MDB Water Information Portal. GMW.
For storage capacities in other valleys refer to the Bureau MDB Water Information Portal.
3. SOUTHERN BASIN WATER ALLOCATIONS
Water allocations were updated last Monday (3 February). Allocations in the NSW Murray increased 4%, to 62% General Security (GS) entitlement. There were no changes to allocations in other key Southern Basin systems.
Southern Basin water allocations (%)
*HRWS: High-reliability water share. HS: High Security. LRWS: Low-reliability water share. GS: General Security.
Sources: NVRM. NSW government. MDBA.
NSW Murray: 62% GS allocation plus 40% carryover brings the total to 102% GS.
Murrumbidgee: 35% GS allocation plus 27% carryover brings the total to 62% GS.
4. LRWS UNLIKELY IN VIC MURRAY & GOULBURN 2024-25
In last week’s northern Victorian seasonal determination update, it was reported that “based on current weather and flow conditions, it is unlikely that either system (Murray or Goulburn) will receive LRWS allocations this season.”
For more detail about the LRWS shortfalls refer to the “10. 2025-26 Water Reserves” section below.
5. RECENT RAIN
Northern Victoria experienced thunderstorms early last week and scattered rainfall with higher totals including 31mm at Swan Hill, 13mm at Kerang, 13mm at Echuca, 61mm at Bullarto South (Upper Loddon), and 31mm at Cairn Curran (Upper Loddon).
There were also thunderstorm warnings for North-East Victoria on Friday with follow-up rain on the weekend including 28mm at Albury, 28mm at Rutherglen, 27mm at Hunters Hill (Upper Murray), and 8mm at Mt Buller.
The rainfall map below shows totals for the past 7 days to Sunday (yesterday).
6. STORAGE VOLUME CHANGES
As shown in the following graphs, storage volumes in Dartmouth Dam, Hume Dam, and Lake Eildon are declining, and are currently below the levels for this time of year (February) for the past 3 years.
Draw-down of the storages continues as the irrigation season progresses with unusually high demand for water and very low inflows.
Source: GMW.
Source: GMW.
Source: GMW.
7. UNUSED AVAILABLE WATER
The graphs below show that current Unused Available Water volumes for the Victorian Murray and the Goulburn have reduced since the last Upcoming Water Availability update (22 January 2025), are less than the same time last season on the Murray system but more than the same time last season on the Goulburn, and less than the same time in 2023.
Data source: Vic Water Register.
Unused available water is the volume that has not been used and remains available in the system. It includes carryover, seasonal allocation, net trade, and water use.
Unused available water volumes in other Victorian systems can be viewed at the Water Register.
8. WATER USED VERSUS WATER REMAINING
Volumes of water used versus of water remaining in the Victorian Murray and Goulburn systems indicate that if 2024-25 water usage and inflows trends continue, carryover volumes into 2025-26 will be lower than carryover into this season. (Also see “2024-25 Carryover Volumes” table in next section below).
Volumes 3-6 February 2025
*Victorian water register. #NVRM.
9. 2024-25 CARRYOVER VOLUMES
Volumes carried over into 2024-25
Source: NVRM. NSW DCCEEW.
10. 2025-26 WATER RESERVES
As shown in GMW’s “rocket diagram” below, in the Victorian Murray, the shortfall to LRWS (in 2024-25) is 900GL, indicating that approximately 1,917GL has already been reserved for 2025-26 water supply commitments.
In the Goulburn system the shortfall to low-reliability water share is 790GL, indicating that about 870GL has been reserved for 2025-26 water supply commitments to date.
In the NSW Murray, higher priority reserves for 2025-26 (about 136GL) were fully met in December 2024.
In the Murrumbidgee, recent resource improvements have enabled higher priority reserves for 2025-26 (about 206GL) to be met.
Source: NVRM.
Source: NVRM.
Water balance diagrams for other northern Victorian regulated systems can be viewed at NVRM.
11. 2025-26 STORAGE CHANGE SCENARIOS
The following graphs show historic changes in key storage capacities over the course of 12 months for previous years when the storages began with similar volumes to February 2025. The graphs show a range of possible capacity scenarios over coming months for each storage.
Source: GMW.
Source: GMW.
Source: GMW.
For similar graphs for other Victorian storages go to GMW.
12. 2025-26 WATER OUTLOOK RELEASE DATE
The 2025-26 northern Victorian seasonal determination outlook is due to be released next Monday, 17 February. The GMW outlook usually provides outlook information for seasonal determinations of HRWS and LRWS for different inflow scenarios, and information about the risk of spill.
Typically, for the NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee systems, next season’s water outlooks are released on 15 March.
13. SYSTEM INFLOWS
The MDBA Murray system inflow graph below shows very low inflows from June to late-November 2024 (blue trace), a pulse following late-November rain, followed by a rapid decline in late December and a return to below average inflows.
The GMW Lake Eildon inflow graph below shows a similar inflow pattern to the Murray during 2024-25.
Source: MDBA.
Source: NVRM.
Inflow graphs for other Victorian storages are available at NVRM.
14. STORAGE INFLOW OUTLOOKS
This time of year, and for the coming few months, inflows are typically low. (See the long-term average inflow traces in the above graphs.) However, the Bureau’s outlook for Lakes Dartmouth and Eildon remains for near-median inflows for January to March 2025. The outlook for Hume Dam is for low inflows during January to March.
Source: Bureau.
Source: Bureau.
Source: Bureau.
Inflow outlooks for other storages can be viewed at the Bureau.
15. CATCHMENT SOIL MOISTURE
The Bureau graphs below show that modelled rootzone soil moisture (top 1m) in the upper Murray and Goulburn catchment is near-median to drier for this time of year.
Rootzone soil moisture, upper-Murray (%)
Source: Bureau.
Rootzone soil moisture, Goulburn catchment (%)
Source: Bureau.
Rootzone soil moisture levels in other valleys can be viewed at the Bureau’s Australian Water Outlook.
16. CLIMATE OUTLOOK
The Bureau’s rainfall outlook for March to May is for about 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for most of the Southern Basin. It is important to note that the past accuracy of the rainfall outlook for March to May is only 45% to 55%.
Rainfall – The chance of above median for March to May
Source: Bureau.
The bureau’s temperature outlook for March to May is for greater than 70% chance of above median maximum and minimum temperatures. The past accuracy of the temperature outlook at this time of the year is significantly better than for the rainfall outlook.
17. CLIMATE DRIVERS
Sea surfaces around most of the Australian coastline remain warm, providing increased atmospheric moisture.
All international models surveyed forecast neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) from March until at least June. Historically, LaNina tends to have a weaker association with Australian temperature and rainfall patterns during summer compared to winter and spring.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little association with the Australian climate from December to April.
Source: Bureau.
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18. USEFUL WEB SITES – for more information related to upcoming irrigation water availability
Rainfall
Recent rainfall. Map. Rainfall for the past day, week or months. BoM.
Recent rainfall. Map. Australian weather stations. Daily, weekly, monthly rainfall all years. BoM.
Recent rainfall. For select Victorian locations. Past 7 days. BoM.
Recent rainfall. Rainfall in the last 24 hours, since 9am, or in last hour. BoM.
Rainfall since 9am. Updated every half hour. For select locations. Rainfall (temperaturre and wind) shown on map as coloured text. Click on “weather observations” (bottom right of screen). Double click on the weather station (location) on the map for more details. “Rain radar” web site. BoM.
Forecast rainfall. Map. For next 4-day or 8-day period, or for any particular day over the next 5 days. BoM.
Forecast rainfall. For nominated locations. 7-day outlook. Forecast rainfall (wind and temperature) given in 3-hour windows. “MetEye” web site. BoM.
Chance of at least. BoM
Chance of at least. Climate services for agriculture.
MDBA Weekly River Murray Report. Provides a weekly review of rainfall and lots of other important updates for the connected southern MDB.
Streamflow response and inflows
Murray system. MDBA Weekly Report. Inflow graphs are at the back of the report. Compares recent inflows with long-term averages. Weekly streamflow response commentary is also provided at the front of the report.
Murray system. Click on a site (eg.Hinnomunjie or Jingellic) and select the “Flow” tab. Updated daily. MDBA.
Goulburn system. Doherty’s, Jamieson, Gerrans Bridge and Glen Esk are some monitoring sites above Lake Eildon. Updated daily. GMW.
Goulburn Murray storage inflow data. Graphs of relative monthly inflows. Analysis of monthly and year-to-date inflows. NVRM.
Campaspe, Broken, Loddon, Ovens and Kiewa Basins. Updated through the day. GMW.
River flood condition. Current. Graphs of recent river height relative to minor, moderate and major flood levels. BoM.
Flood class level. Shows minor, moderate and major flood levels for different monitoring sites. BoM.
Annual streamflow differences and streamflow data. For many Australian locations (“Hydrological Reference Stations”.) Daily, monthly and annual streamflow data and analysis. BoM.
Water data online. Shows flow data (often measured as cubic metres per second “cumec”!) and useful analysis including monthly mean flows for hydrologic reference stations around Australia. BoM.
Surface water monitoring sites. Vic. Stream level. Streamflow data and reports. DELWP.
Streamflow – NSW. Shows current, historical and forecast flow rates and river levels for NSW river gauges. (Select a location on the map and choose the “gauges” tab.) Water Insights. WaterNSW.
Past, current, forecast and projected run-off maps. Forecast – for each of next 3 months. Projected – 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2085. BoM – AWO.
Past, current, forecast and projected evapotranspiration maps. Forecast – for each of next 3 months. Projected – 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2085. BoM – AWO.
Streamflow forecasts
Seasonal streamflow forecast. Up to 3-month forecast. eg. Forecast inflows for Lakes Hume, Dartmouth, Eildon, Eppalock or Nillahcootie. BoM.
7-day streamflow forecast. eg. For locations in the upper-Murray, upper-Goulburn, Campaspe or Loddon. BoM.
Murray system. Click on a site (eg. Hinnomunjie or Jingelic) and select the “Flow Forecast” tab. 7-day forecast. MDBA.
Catchment condition
Current relative long-term rootzone soil moisture. Map and graph. eg. Type “Upper Murray River,” “Goulburn River” or “Broken River” into the Search Bar. BoM.
Historical, forecast and projected soil moisture. Forecast – for each of next 3 months. Projected – 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2085. BoM – AWO.
Seasonal water determinations
Current Northern Vic allocations. Current allocations for the different Northern Victorian irrigation systems. NVRM.
Historical Northern Vic allocations. Historical allocations data for the different Northern Victorian irrigation systems, back to 1994-95. NVRM.
Current and historical NSW allocations. Water Alloction Statements, iIncluding NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee. DPIE.
Current and historical SA allocations. Water Allocation Statements and pre-season announcements. DEW.
MDBA Weekly River Murray Update. Summary of current water allocations for different vallies in the sMDB, usually on the last page of the report.
Water allocation outlooks
Northern Vic. Current outlook for the different Northern Vic irrigation systems. NVRM
NSW. Includes NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee. The water outlook is included in the relevant Water Allocation Statements, usually on the back page of the report. DPIE.
Northern Vic Water Balance (“rocket”) diagrams. Graph showing a breakdown of the water in store and water commitments, for each Northern Vic irrigation district. NVRM.
Climate outlook
Climate outlook. Weeks, months and seasons. The one-week and two-week forecast maps and graphs are updated daily. Forecasts for months and seasons ahead are updated every Thursday. BoM.
Climate Driver Update. Over-all summary. Pacific Ocean. Indian Ocean. Southern Ocean. Sea surface. Issued fortnightly. BoM.
Outlook scenario for rainfall amount. Map showing chance of rainfall amount for next week, fortnight, month or 3-month period. BoM.
Chance of at least (rainfall). Map showing probabilities of receiving a specified amount of rain for next week, fortnight, month or 3-month period. BoM.
The Fast Break. A farmer-oriented update of seasonal climate drivers and outlooks, including a summary of rainfall predictions for the next 3 months from 12 different climate models. AgVic.
Climate driver tool. Interactive tool that enables you to explore how rainfall at your selected location has been influenced by different climate driver phases, in the past. The tool also provides analysis of long-term rainfall records. AgVic, GRDC and SARDI.
My Climate View. Designed to help Australian farmers better understand the climate risks and opportunities facing them over the next 50 years. BoM and CSIRO.
Weather warnings
Victorian warnings. Summary of valid weather warnings issued, including floods. BoM.
River Height and flood class. Provides data on current river height, flood class and whether rising, falling or steady. Table and graphs. BoM.
Streamflow flooding and recent rainfall. Shows river condition (flooding) for monitoring sites across catchments. Map. BoM.
Water storage
MDBA River Murray Weekly Report (produced on Fridays):
– Graph showing ‘MDB Active Storage’, recent and over the last 20 years. This graph only appears monthly, usually in the first week of the month
– A summary of storage volumes and weekly volume changes for southern MDB storages are given in tables (usually on about page 3).
Northern Vic Resource Manager. Provides a breakdown of volumes currently available in allocation accounts, new allocation volumes in the current season, volumes carried over into the season, volumes in spillable accounts and net trade – for each irrigation district and for private, environmental and Water Corp holdings.
Goulburn Murray storages. Shows current storage levels, weekly change and storage at the same time last year, for Murray, Goulburn, Ovens, Broken, Campaspe, Loddon and Bullarook storages. Graphs of storage levels this year, compared to previous years are shown. Updated regularly. GMW web site.
Goulburn Murray storages. Shows storage level graphs and data for Murray, Goulburn, Ovens, Broken, Campaspe, Loddon, Kiewa and Bullarook storages. Updated every 15 minutes. GMW.
Goulburn Murray storages. Shows graphs and data for observed volume, level and percentage full for GM storages. (Select ‘System Status Report’, choose which ‘Basin’, select ‘Storage’, then select your storage.) GMW.
Murray storages. Click on the storage (eg. Hume Dam) to get ‘percent full’ and current storage volumes. This site is regularly updated. MDBA.
Murray Darling Basin storages. Shows ‘percent full’ figures for storages in the Basin. Also provides ‘percent full’ for ‘Southern Basin total.’ Updated fortnightly. The fortnightly MD Basin Storage Report featuring a map with current MDB storage volumes, can be downloaded from this page. MDBA.
Murray Darling Basin storages. Shows dam volume and ‘percent full’ figures for Basin storages, different systems (eg. Murray and Goulburn) compared to last year, and a break-down of how the water is shared (eg. private, environment, water corporation). Updated regularly. BoM.
NSW storages. Provides “percent full”, current volume, inflow and release data for NSW storages. Updated regularly. (Select a location and the “storage” tab. Water Insights – WaterNSW.
Archived Basin storage reports. Provides an archive of fortnightly reports showing MDB water in storages, back to 2009. MDBA.
Carryover volumes
Northern Vic Resource Manager. Shows carryover volumes for each (Northern Vic) irrigation district.
NSW. Carryover percentages for NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee systems are usually included in the Water Allocation Statements (usually in a table on page 1). DPIE.
- SA. Developments regarding SA carryover and whether or not it is available in an irrigation season, are typically found in the pre-season announcements. DEW.
Vic Carryover Tool. To help you work through carryover scenarios for your unique Vic farm situation. DELWP (Vic Water Register).
Water availability
Unused water – Vic. Shows volume of carryover, allocation, use, net trade, write-off and a graph of unused available water in recent seasons for each northern Vic valley. Vic Water Register.
Available water by owner type – Vic. Shows carryover, allocation, trade and spill volumes for Vic valleys. Private, environment and Water Corp ownership categories. Current and previous years. Scroll down for Further Insights. Vic Water Register.
Water allocated and used – NSW. Shows the volume of water allocated and used against entitlement type and ownership class. This information is shown for the current year or previous years. (Select a location and click on the “allocation” or the “historical” tab.) Water Insights. WaterNSW.
River Murray flow and use in SA. Shows river flow into SA and a break-down of water use. Updated quraterly. SA Dept of Env and Water.
River Murray Water Calculator – SA. Shows SA allocation and entitlement volumes for different water classes under different water availability scenarios. SA Dept of Env and Water.
Southern Basin water availability. Shows the current sMDB water volume compared to the same time last year, for the past 10 years, and since 1979. Gold!! BoM MDB Water Information Portal.
District water use and trade – Northern Vic
District Water Use. Water used in different Northen Victorian irrigation districts by private, environment and water corp owners. NVRM web site.
Net Trade for Districts. Trade in and trade out, for different Northen Victorian irrigation districts by private, environment and water corp owners. NVRM web site
Water available by owner type. Vic district carryover, allocation, trade and spill volumes. Vic Water Register.
Risk of spill announcements
Northern Victorian Resource Manager. Sometimes the Vic risk of spill information is included in the Seasonal Outlook announcements.
Current state shares in Murray storages
MDBA Storages. Displays the shares of the MDBA “Active Storages” (Lakes Hume, Dartmouth, Menindee and Victoria) for Vic, NSW and SA. This site also shows the relative “air space” for each share (Vic, NSW & SA). Scroll to the bottom of the page and click on the PDF for the latest update. MDBA.
Intervalley trade (IVT)
Goulburn IVT
Opportunity for allocation trade. Interactive tool. Vic Water Register web site.
Planned monthly IVT transfers. Scroll down to the heading “Planned Inter-Valley Trade Transfers.” GMW web site.
Goulburn to Murray trade rules. Be carefull to stay informed about the latest changes to Goulburn to Murray trade rules. Vic Water Register web site.
Barmah Choke
Barmah Choke trade balance. Current and historic trade balance data. MDBA web site.
Allocation trade opportunity. Interactive tool. Vic Water Register web site.
Murrumbidgee IVT
IVT Status. Provides the current Murrumbidgee IVT Account Balance, whether trade is open or closed and backgound information. WaterNSW site.
Annual plan for MDB IVT
MDBA River Murray System Annual Operating Outlooks. Outlines potential forward scenarios of IVT delivery for the irrigation season ahead – which can be useful if you want to gain a better understanding of how much water may be traded out of different valleys in the remainder of the season.
Water Market Outlook
ABARES Dashboard. Water Market Outlook for sMDB water allocation prices for wet, average and dry scenarios. Water market reports are also provided.
Water market information
Weekly Water Market Report. H2OX.
Weekly Newsletter. Ruralco.
Weekly Water Report. Waterfind.
Weekly Water Wrap. Waterpool.
Water reports. Aither.
Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Ag Update. ABARES
Aggregated MDB water listings – “WaterFlow.” Marsden Jacobs and Australian government.
WaterExchange. Water market and clearing house.
Water market summary dashboard. BoM
Vic water register. DEECA.
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This publication is provided solely for information purposes and no representation or warranty is made as to its quality, accuracy, completeness, suitability or fitness for any particular purpose. You should make your own inquiries as to its appropriateness and suitability for your particular circumstances. The State of Victoria as represented by its Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action accepts no duty of care and disclaims all liability in relation to use of this publication.
Information in these updates is provided to assist irrigators make more informed and earlier farm maangement decisions related to upcoming irrigation water availability. The information is NOT intended to assist with financial decision making related to water investment or water trade.
Due to a need for the release of timely information, this report is not subject to rigorous checking and approval procedures. Figures provided in this report are entered manually and are subject to error. Information in this report needs to be checked with other sources.
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